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Hardware Reliability Growth Estimations and Projections
– What is Valid and What is Not
BAE SYSTEMS
NHQ040132, 65 Spit Brook Rd., Nashua, NH, 03060
This presentation addresses the foundations of Reliability Growth tracking and estimation,
what is valid and what is not. It intends to show where the principals established
in 1964 have been misinterpreted resulting in over-reaching claims. It is also the
intent of this presentation to show what reliability estimations are valid and useful
without over-extending the limits of probability theory.
The Requirements, System Design and Detailed Design for a Reliability Growth Plotting
for Hardware are summarized. The bases for tracking reliability in a test and fix
environment are reviewed along with the observations and recommendations of the
original proponents of application of learning curve theory to Reliability Estimation.
It underscores what can be known and proposes objective methods which remove judgment
factors that are prone to inflict bias in the calculations. Care is taken to impose
only requirements that are possible to achieve and to show how subjectivity can
be removed from interpretation of Reliability Growth data while remaining true to
the principals of statistical inference. Among the issues to be addressed include:
1. The underlying
assumptions for plotting reliability growth
2. The impact
of corrective action effectiveness on Reliability Growth Rate,
3. The rules
for plotting Reliability Growth
4. Objectivity
and plotting
Presenters:
Dave Dwyer has worked both as a reliability engineer and as a software engineer
while at BAE SYSTEMS over the last 34 years and is currently a Principal Software
Engineer. Before working at BAE SYSTEMS, he was a flight instructor at the University
of Illinois for 3 ½ years. He has a BS in Physics (Providence College, 1963) an
MSEE (Northeastern University, 1980) and MSCS (Rivier College, 1999). He has presented
several papers on Software Reliability including “Software Reliability Estimations/Projections,
Cumulative & Instantaneous” – 2004 RAMS and a paper on Hardware Reliability Growth,
“Reliability Test Planning for One Shot Systems” - 1987 RAMS.
Jonathan Cahill is a reliability engineer at BAE SYSTEMS. While at BAE SYSTYEMS
he has done work plotting and estimating reliability growth for various programs
from Manufacturing Development through Production phases. He has a BS in Electrical
and Computer Engineering (Worcester Polytechnic Institute, 2003).
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